Wind Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
9
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
72
32-29-11
overall winrate
52.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1373
· median 1339
· range 1208–1642
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
44% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.0% | -6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 37.4% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 9 | 6-1-2 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 65.1% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 60.6% | +5.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 34.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.0% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 28.6% | -16.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 6 | 0-3-3 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 33.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.1% | -27.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 28.8% | -15.9 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Wind Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
